地下储油复杂组合空间油气扩散蔓延三维数值模拟

针对地下储油复杂组合空间,采用大涡模拟的方法构建了油气扩散蔓延三维数值模拟模型,完成了油气扩散蔓延区域的空间离散和三维数值模拟求解优化,并进行了数值计算与分析。结果表明,在地下复杂组合受限空间油料泄漏后,罐室内的油气填充顺序为由边缘到出口、由底部到上部,油气不能达到100%的充满状态,罐室拱形顶部油气体积分数低于其爆炸下限的20%;罐室内油气的产生和蔓延十分迅速,从泄漏至到达罐室口仅需10 s,进入坑道仅需1 min;油气在流出罐室进入坑道后,具有迅速向四周扩散蔓延,流向一切可能注入的空间的特性。研究结果为地下储油工程的施工建设、安全管理、危险源监控等提供了有益参考。     

长贮过程中发动机HTPB推进剂老化机理分析

为揭示固体推进剂在长期贮存过程中的老化机理,解剖了自然贮存19年贴壁浇注的端羟基聚丁二烯橡胶推进剂装药发动机,沿着药柱径向不同位置进行了取样,并采用扫描电镜、能量色散X射线光谱仪、红外吸收光谱、交联密度等多种手段对这些样品进行了测试分析。研究发现：贴壁浇注发动机药柱不同位置推进剂的老化程度不尽相同,越靠近非金属壳体位置,推进剂的老化程度越严重。进一步深入分析表明：除了丁羟胶中双键的氧化断链和端羟基的缩合等影响推进剂老化,铝粉氧化产生的铝离子会催化丁羟胶双键与氯气或水发生加成反应生成■双键和仲醇,而铝离子迁移和分布的不均匀会引起药柱老化的不均匀性。研究结果对推进剂配方设计和防老化措施的研究具有重要意义。     

The human consequences of foreign military intervention

The empirical international conflict literature has given much recent attention to interstate armed force’s impact on human well-being. While empirical research has advanced our understanding of the phenomenon considerably, we argue that one conclusion that many studies have reached is preliminary. Some recent research contends that only full-scale war, and not force short of war, has a discernable impact on human welfare or physical quality of life (PQOL). We develop theory on one type of force short of war, large-scale foreign military intervention (FMI), and its potential effects on PQOL. Using interrupted time series and panel corrected standard error methodologies, we find that from 1960 to 2005 large-scale FMI had a statistically and substantively significant impact on the PQOL of populations in 106 developing countries. The specific effect that this type of armed force has depended in large part on the regime type of the target country.     

分布式储能技术的探索与实践

文章阐述了分布式储能技术的重要意义,介绍了分布式储能技术在经济社会可持续发展重要领域——能源互联网发展中的重要地位,并对分布式储能的技术形态与载体进行了分析,最后以信息网络重要组成部分——数据中心为应用场景,对分布式储能技术的实践进行了探讨。     

Stochastic framework for partially degradation systems with continuous component degradation‐rate‐interactions

Many conventional models that characterize the reliability of multicomponent systems are developed on the premise that for a given system, the failures of its components are independent. Although this facilitates mathematical tractability, it may constitute a significant departure from what really takes place. In many real‐world applications, system components exhibit various degrees of interdependencies, which present significant challenges in predicting degradation performance and the remaining lifetimes of the individual components as well as the system at large. We focus on modeling the performance of interdependent components of networked systems that exhibit interactive degradation processes. Specifically, we focus on how the performance level of one component affects the degradation rates of other dependent components. This is achieved by using stochastic models to characterize how degradation‐based sensor signals associated with the components evolve over time. We consider “Continuous‐Type” component interactions that occur continuously over time. This type of degradation interaction exists in many applications, in which interdependencies occur on a continuum. We use a system of stochastic differential equations to capture such “Continuous‐Type” interaction. In addition, we utilize a Bayesian approach to update the proposed model using real‐time sensor signals observed in the field and provide more accurate estimation of component residual lifetimes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 286–303, 2014     

随机滤波模型在变速箱剩余寿命预测中的应用研究

摘要：基于变速箱加速寿命实验的振动信号,提取信号的多种特征参量．通过分析各特征参量的敏感性和稳定性,选择幅域裕度指标、峰值指标、波形指标和RMS（RootMeanSquare）作为特征参量,建立一种基于随机滤波的变速箱剩余寿命预测模型,给出剩余寿命后验概率密度的递推公式,设计了极大似然估计方法求解模型参数,并经实例验证模型的有效性和实用性．     

基于步进加速寿命试验的制导弹药储存寿命评估

介绍步进应力加速寿命试验原理,通过对制导弹药自动导引头贮存状态和失效机理的分析,确定了加速寿命试验应力和应力水平．假设产品寿命服从威布尔分布,应用极大似然估计和Bayes的方法处理数据,建立制导弹药可靠储存寿命预测模型,并计算得到自动导引头在正常应力水平下的可靠储存寿命．     

液体储罐泄漏数学模型的改进研究

在液体储罐泄漏过程中,罐内压力是随泄漏时间变化的量,泄漏强度也随罐内压力而变化,但在已有对液体流泄漏数学模型的建构中,在后果计算时没有全面考虑罐内压力以及罐内液体闪蒸导致空间的物质量,获得的结果用于后果评价,就必然与实际情况存在偏差.应用数学方法,对液体泄漏模型进行改进,改进后模型把罐内压力以及罐内空间的物质量作为变量,可较真实模拟出泄漏时泄漏强度、储罐内气体压力及泄漏量随时间变化的大小情况,并模拟了孔洞液体泄漏,得出不太可能发生灾难性事故的结论.     

新疆高校大学生生活价值观及应对方式的相关研究

本研究对新疆在校大学生生活价值观现状及应对方式进行调研,经分析得出：新疆高校大学生生活价值观各维度与积极应对呈线性相关,不向学生的生活价值观在年级、专业、性别变量上存在显著差异和多样性,农学专业学生在生活价值观各维度和压力应对上需要进一步引导和关注。     

基于网络存储技术的武警有线综合业务网存储系统研究

为解决武警有线综合业务网海量信息的存储与管理问题,本文在论述了目前比较流行的网络存储技术的基础上,结合武警有线综合业务网的特点,提出了适应武警有线综合业务网存储需要的网络存储技术方案。